Nice article about blip.tv and its hosting of 38,000 user-generated shows, with a 50-50 ad revenue model split with the creator.

News: LA Times has this excellent article discussing the end of manufacturing of the VHS tape. Soon, VHS tapes used on VCRs will suffer the same fate as Polaroid film: obsolescence.

Analysis: I have a confession to make. I own a VCR and still occasionally use it–the last time to tape Obama’s convention speech, followed by Palin’s convention speech. I also have a DVD player, but it broke after I used it once and I never got around to buying another one. And it may be shocking to some who know me as a techie, I don’t have a DVR. Don’t get me wrong, I think DVRs are cool. But, to be honest, there’s not much on TV I ever find worth time shifting for later viewing. If I miss it, no loss.

But I will miss the VCR, just as I already miss Polaroid cameras and film (I still have my cache in the refrigerator). The VCR gave birth to one of the most important copyright cases of the 20th century, Universal City Studios v. Sony, in which the Supreme Court recognized the Sony safe harbor. Under the Sony safe harbor, tech developers are protected from copyright lawsuits for developing technologies that are capable of substantial noninfringing uses (even if they have infringing uses, too). Even more than its legal contribution, I find something beautiful and simple in the analog, retro features of the VCR. It was revolutionary in its day, and lasted for over 2 decades. Not true for the DVD, which some say will already become obsolete to BluRay soon.

It’s hard to say why people become attached to some (but not all) “retro” technologies. But they do. Many people still swear by vinyl albums and turntables! (Not me.) Many people think Polaroid photos are works of art. (Me.) Although the VCR is not as glamorous as vinyl or Polaroids, it has a special place in my book.

News:  Tech Crunch’s Erick Schonfeld has the best analysis I’ve seen about YouTube’s market share and business model.  Google CEO Eric Schmidt openly concedes that it has faced difficulties in converting YouTube into a money-making venture in the same way Google has.  Schonfeld estimates or speculates that YouTube’s advertising revenues (in the neighborhood of $200 million) represent only 15% of the online video market, even though YouTube commands 37% of all videos watched online.

News: comScore reports that December 2007 had the greatest number of videos watched by US Internet users (10 billion) –attributable to the writers’ strike and the general lack of interesting TV programs to watch. 32.6% of that total was watched on YouTube. YouTube also had the most unique visitors, 79 million, followed by FOX sites at 43 million.

News: The Wall Street Journal had an excellent article today about how “Social Sites Don’t Deliver Big Ad Gains.” Unfortunately, the entire article is not freely available online. It had a couple paragraphs specifically about YouTube that suggested it was having trouble luring big corporations to advertise on YouTube. The problem is that some corporations may be skittish in advertising alongside videos that are not politically correct or free of controversy. Even CEO of Google Eric Schmidt admitted that things were going slower than expected with the monetization of ads on YouTube.

Analysis: Uh-oh.

News: comScore just issued this press release about the growth of online video watching. The numbers are getting bigger and bigger. For YouTube, 74.5 million people viewed 2.9 billion videos on YouTube.com (39 videos per viewer)” in November.

RESTON, VA, January 17, 2008 – comScore (NASDAQ: SCOR), a leader in measuring the digital world, today released its comScore Video Metrix report for November 2007, indicating that more than 75 percent of U.S. Internet users watched a video online (including both streaming video and progressive downloads), averaging 3.25 hours of video per person during the month. Google Sites, which includes YouTube.com, increased its video market share by more than two percentage points to 31.3 percent from October to November.

Google Expands Lead in Online Video Market Share

Americans viewed nearly 9.5 billion online videos in November, with Google Sites once again ranking as the top U.S. video property with 3 billion videos viewed (31.3 percent share of all videos viewed), 2.9 billion of which occurred at YouTube.com (30.6 percent). Fox Interactive Media ranked second with 419 million videos viewed (4.4 percent), followed by Yahoo! Sites with 328 million (3.5 percent) and Viacom Digital with 304 million (2.6 percent).

*Rankings based on video content sites; excludes video server networks. Online video includes both streaming and progressive download video.

In total, 138 million Americans – approximately three in four U.S Internet users – viewed online video in November. Google Sites also captured the largest online video audience with 76.2 million unique viewers, followed by Fox Interactive Media with 46.3 million and Yahoo! Sites with 37.3 million.

*Rankings based on video content sites; excludes video server networks. Online video includes both streaming and progressive download video.

Other notable findings from November 2007 include:

• 74.5 million people viewed 2.9 billion videos on YouTube.com (39 videos per viewer).
• 43.2 million people viewed 389 million videos on MySpace.com (9 videos per viewer).
• Online viewers watched an average of 3.25 hours (195 minutes) of online video during the month, representing a 29-percent gain from the 2.52 hours (151 minutes) watched in January 2007.
• The average online video duration was 2.8 minutes.
• The average online video viewer consumed 69 videos.

News: MacWorld is the annual pilgrimage for all the obsessed Mac devotees in the world. Steve Jobs’ keynote presentation is, of course, the main event. This year, Jobs announced a new super-thin laptop called the MacBook Air, as well as some tinkering with the disappointing AppleTV. Tech Crunch has the play-by-play.

As techdirt reports, another significant announcement was Apple’s entry into video rental market via iTunes. You can now rent movies through iTunes. Techdirt, though, questions Apple’s per-video rental fees, instead of the NetFlix “all you can eat” subscription plays. Techdirt also questions the use of DRM on the iTunes movies, something that has backfired in the music world — in part because Steve Jobs criticized it.

The new MacBook Air is priced at $1,799, which Tech Crunch says is too expensive.

Review: I’ve just looked at FOX’s new “on demand” website. Go here.  I really wonder how this beta FOX site will exist alongside FOX’s joint video project with NBC, www.hulu.com.   That part is not yet clear. To access FOX’s new beta site, you may have to download a plug-in to start watching. But once you do, it’s well worth it. The menu starts out with this cool spin wheel, like on the Price is Right.

And then once you watch a show, the picture is in high def (at least for The Sarah Connor Chronicles). It’s breathtaking.

I only hope that FOX puts American Idol on the Internet.

News:  Nielson Online reports that YouTube and other video sharing sites have seen a spike of 20% in their viewers since the TV writers’ strike has started.  The article speculates whether the spike can be attributed to the writers’ strike or not, as opposed to a more general growth in broadband Internet use.  (More)

News:  NYT has a fascinating article today about a growing phenomenon:  more people are sitting at their computers for lunch to watch online videos.  TV stations and media providers have recognized the midday spike and are launching online content to meet the lunch-time demand.  The clips tend to be shorter, as viewers like it.

News: A survey of 2,455 U.S. adults found that 65% watched a YouTube video at least one time in 2007, while 42% said they watched YouTube frequently. (More)  Here’s a nice chart of YouTube’s amazing growth in 2007.

But, in another part, the survey found: “Online viewers said they would watch more TV episodes and full-length movies if more were available. There was less interest in viewing more amateur or user-generated videos, news and sports, according to the survey.”

Analysis: It will be difficult for any competitor to dislodge YouTube from the top of the video market. The user base is so large, which makes the network (effects) so strong an attraction for people. I’ve been studying reviews of competitor video sites — many of which offer better video quality than YouTube — but I’m not sure any of the others have much of a chance against YouTube/Google. The survey’s finding about a preference for professional content over user-generated stuff (althouth the figures are not given) does provide some hope for Hula and others that are trying to market “premium” content.

News: Wall St. Journal had an interesting article yesterday analyzing why the Apple TV and other devices that allow people to watch online videos on their TVs haven’t really sold well.

 Two interesting facts noted in the article:

1.  US users watched 9.13 billion videos online in August, up 26% from 7.25 billion in January.

2.  In 2006, 80% of people surveyed said that would not pay any price for a device that would allow them to watch Internet videos on their TV.

Analysis:  My guess is that people are fine watching videos on their computer monitors (the quality of which are pretty good and, in any event, YouTube’s video quality is not that great, to begin with).

News:  USA Today has an article discussing the development of “webisodes,” short videos online that are comparable to TV shows.  Lonelygirl15, for instance, turned out to be the most famous, launching on YouTube last year, but her main character has since died off.

One of the new series online is Quarterlife, produced by TV directors Marshall Herskovitz and Edward Zwick.  You can find the show on MySpace.  A related USA Today article discusses not only Quarterlife, but also Chad Vader (popular on YouTube) and Roommates (popular on MySpaceTV).

Analysis:  The dramatic series is difficult to do in 4 minute or less, but I think Lonelygirl15 proved that it can be done effectively on the Internet.  As more Hollywood directors (along with amateurs) play around with short videos, I’m sure we will see another Internet sensation like Lonelygirl 15.  You really need to start out with a captivating actor, though.  And to sustain the sensation, a good story — something that I’m not sure that Lonelygirl15 could deliver.

News: NBC Universal and Fox have teamed up to develop a video site called “Hulu” that will deliver “premium” content of their own TV shows, like The Office and Prison Break. Users can’t upload anything, sorry. Wired gives the beta version of Hulu a favorable review. (I’ve signed up for the beta, but am still waiting on my invite.)

Analysis: So will Hulu be the “YouTube killer” it was touted by some to be? I think Wired has the right answer: basically, no. (“[W]ith the lack of user-generated content, it falls short of the end-all be-all site for online video. Viewers are still going to go to YouTube and still click their ads — but in terms of piracy a minor rebellion may have been quelled.”) But here’s what Hulu will help to kill: the DVR industry and the primacy of network television. As I’ve been saying all along, this is the beginning of the end of television as we know it.

News:  NBC Universal pulled the plug on its YouTube channel, without explanation.  The NBC channel on YouTube had some of the most popular videos on YouTube, including the megahit with Justin Timberlake and a strategically placed box.  The move is likely in anticipation of the launching of NBC’s joint video site with News Corp “Hulu,” which is now in beta.  (More)

News:  Jon Stewart’s Daily Show has uploaded all of its shows into short video clips on its website (with ads).  (More) 

Analysis:  This is the beginning of the end of television as we know it.  All shows will eventually migrate to the Internet.  You won’t need your DVR.   And perhaps one day, in the next generation, the Internet will be the primary destination for entertainment over TV. 

News:  The Tech Crunch blog has this excellent review of the key players in the online video industry, with a nice chart and thumb nails of the video players of each of the competitors (which if you click on will take you to the video).

Here’s one of the key findings:  “Out of all these alternative services, blip.tv stands out as the most professional video sharing solution. The website and player are cleanly designed, they accept perhaps the widest range of file formats, they will automatically syndicate your videos to many other websites, and you can choose to place midroll, postroll, adjacent, and overlay advertisements in your uploads. Additionally, you can track your shows’ statistics quite closely and allow users to download your videos. I could go on and on about blip.tv’s useful features. The only major bummer with blip.tv is that you can’t seek ahead to points in a video using their Flash player.”

News: Google will announce today an ad program using videos of select YouTube partners on other sites through Google’s existing AdSense program by deploying “video units.” The videos will contain the InVideo ads that scroll on the bottom of the screen for a few seconds. According to the AP, “Google will share the ad revenue generated by the YouTube videos with the content provider and the Web site that shows the clips.” (more) TechCrunch blog has a post. Google has this video.

Analysis: It’s been 1 year since Google bought YouTube for $1.65 billion. While YouTube drives a lot of traffic to its site, YouTube hasn’t made much revenue. There’s a lot riding on this ad program and deployment of InVideo ads on YouTube itself. I’m still waiting for a full deployment of the YouTube ads to give my sense on how good it will be.

News: NBC made a major announcement today: starting in November, it will offer NBC shows for free downloading online for a 1 week period after airing on TV. The free videos will have commercials. Viewers can pay extra for a commercial-free version. “With the creation of this new service, we are acknowledging that now, more than ever, viewers want to be in control of how, when and where they consumer their favorite entertainment,” said Vivi Zigler, executive vice president of NBC Digital Entertainment. (More)

Analysis: Tech Crunch blog wonders whether NBC’s decision will hurt its joint effort to launch the Hulu site with News Corp, the so-called “YouTube killer.” Regardless, NBC’s decision is of huge significance. I expect CBS and ABC to follow suit. This may be the beginning of TV’s migration to the Internet.

News:  According to the NYT, Comscore has some interesting stats on video viewing online.

1.  75% of Internet in the US now watch an average of 3 hours of video online per month

2.  The average viewing of a video is 2.7 minutes

3.  2.5 billion videos were viewed on Google sites in July, of which 2.4 billion came from YouTube